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UKRAINIAN CYCLES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

11.11.2015 21:14

[Секция 10. Мировая экономика и международные экономические отношения]

Автор: Busarieva T.G., PhD, senior lecturer, department of international economics Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman


The economic growth - is  not just the smooth getting up, that is evenly carried out, in fact afoot of the public production. There  are direct years, when the growth of general production volume takes place very quickly, in other years — slower, sometimes there is even a slump. Reasons of such vibrations during economic development have been explained variously. Some economists (J.B.Sei, D. Ricardo etc.) in general denied the possibility of general economic crises;the partial crises of overproduction were explained by the violation of the proportion between different industries of the production, which recommences  by the motion of the market economy. Another group of economists (D. Keins, E. Hansen) explain the crises of overproduction by the  insufficient propensity to the consumption, which falls behind the growth of profits, that is why an exit from crises is seen in  the stimulation of the combined demand.As a result, the  reasons and the results of the cyclic motion of market economy  appearsvery difficult. Therefore many modern economists are limited to the general pointing on that  the reason of cyclic motion is stopped up in difficult and contradictory character of the varied forces and factors which give  the operation on motion of  the market economy[1].

For a decade from 1991 to nowadays Ukrainian economy has come the road from the crisis to the crisis. Whether it is possible to consider that as a result of the walking away from the planned principles of the mixture a cyclic dynamics became the form of the economic development of Ukraine, that the «started» generator of cyclic vibrations or last crisis appeared simply by the result of the world shocks imported to Ukraine. Yet to the appearance of macroeconomics dichotomy «state-market» was one of the basic bars round which many questions of economic theories were revolved and it is impossible not to acknowledge that arguments over in behalf of non-interference of the state in economic activity on the different stages of development of economic science were brought very weighty.

Crisis in Ukraine with inevitability will repeat oneself by virtue that in our country there was the economic system the development of which from now on takes place cyclically. It is necessary to watch and forecast not only the development of global economy but also our own. While in our country there are neither statistic, nor methods and exhaust procedures which allow to analyze the cyclic processes, as it is done in other countries of the world. That’s why this problem has come into the consideration[2, p.13-15]

Often depression in the economy is characterized as a phase, following after a crisis – as a downstream, with weak demand for goods,  mass unemployment. The author considers that such approach characterizes it partly. Depression in an economy can arise up not only as a result of post-crisis syndrome but also as a result of specific application of instruments of macroeconomic policy.

The author divides the position of D. Tobina, that at the prognostication of economic dynamics it is necessary to take a «pair» – not only economic mechanisms but also  the action of instruments of macroeconomic policy in a calculation (budget-financial, money-and-credit and currency policy). Specific action of the last, and they are very strong in the context of the system affecting economy, also able to cause the deceleration of economic dynamics and business activity, price-cutting, growth of unemployment etc.

 However practical experience of many decades and, in particular, experience of the last crisis in Ukraine shows: as soon as a slump begins to be seem too deep and protracted, government operates regardless of the «state is what from competitive conceptions a market» prevails at this time in a theory. However, other things being equal, more exact pictures of that, in what phase of cycle an economy is in  concrete moment, as far the attendant of the turning point of the cycle able to decrease authenticity of erroneous actions from the side of the state. Politicians and economists which adhere to the point of view about possibility  of the positive action of the state on an economy examines the exactness of information about a cyclic dynamics as one of the necessary terms of effective anticyclical and anti crisis policy[3,p.23-26].

 «Unexpectedly large» crises give not only the new impulse  to the economists- theorists to this subsequent understanding of the difficult organism – economy, simultaneously they shine the special meaningfulness of works on research of cycle of economists-empiricists. These laborious and, on the face of it, conservative works on monitoring and analysis of cyclic of economic development, conducted the perfection of methods and tools of authentication of turning points of cycle and its phases continuously, regardless of  the size and duration of slumps[4,p.32-36].

Character of empiric researches of cyclic dynamics connected with several factors. A major role is  played by length of temporal rows, simply the amount of supervisions (cycles). No less important is, what amount of temporal rows is accessible to the researchers at every instant and, surely, quality of these rows. All of it predetermines methods which can be used for processing of present statistical data.Possibilities of the use of the newest statistical-mathematical methods and models at the researches of cycle broaden as far as perfection of information technologies which allow to process all large arrays of information. Technological innovations also create terms for the substantial acceleration of receipt processing of data, approaching possibilities of monitoring of swaying processes to real-time.

During  last ages empiric researches of economic cycles developed in the river-bed of the vast program, developed W. Mitchel. From 1920, when Mitchell led the National bureau of economic researches (NBEI) founded at his assistance, the analysis of economic cycles became major work of this organization assignment and up to today's time it remains one of main directions of its activity.In opinion of Arthur Berns exactly Mitchell pranged tradition to use statistics for illustration of theoretical constructions. 

Two revolutionary consequences of Mitchel’s projects had an important impact in the development of international economy. At first, the theory of economic cycles left off to be only logical exercise and got up on soil of empiric supervisions and, secondly, in the process of looking after economic life in all its variety the theory of cycles grew into the theory of functioning of economic organization of society on the whole.This approach of Mitchell underlay works of many economists-empiricists, putting the beginning of researches, what appeared the cyclic indicators are as a result of indexes, based on  the information of public opinion and business polls[5,p.61-64].

Analyzing the methodological problems  the Ukrainian cycle  it is important to mention that even among professionals there is no  general idea not only about nature of the these cycles but also about the fact of recurrence of the Ukrainian economy. Attempts to identify the phenomenon of swaying processes in the economy of Ukraine, alike a form with the cyclic, come across a number of serious problems. Major among them the most important are the followings:

• absence of confessedly dating of the beginning and ending  of the  crises;   

• the quality  of Ukrainian statistics;  

• too short sentinel interval for the aims of cyclic analysis: not more than two decades.

That’s why nowadays it is important to find the detailed solution of these problems, and also possible roads of their decision on the basis of world experience, applicable in the today's Ukrainian terms.  In the USA composite cyclic indexes were developed by the National bureaus of economic researches, beginning from 1930th. From 1960th this work was conducted by the Department of trading in the USA, and then – by the non governmental enterprise and research association of «The Conference of the Board»[6].

On the  most important thing in the question of indication the cycles of the economical development are the indexes. Changes in the composition of leading, consoling and  those, that are late composite indexes of the USA during last ten  years demonstrate convincingly, as far as a thin and laborious task is the selection of indicators for each of them. Exactness that is given the composite indexes of signals depends on that, in which measure their constituents «catch» the state of all economy on the whole.For this reason from time to time composition of composite indexes of the USA changed representing the structural changes in the economy, different changes of institutional character, equal as and expansion of array of statistical information and improvement of their quality. From  the year of 1950 it was conducted those, that there are five key look over the  composite indexes. That what is necessary that the same solution will be done in Ukraine in order to understand the real situation in the economicaldevelopment.

Coming from these indexes,  can we  say that in Ukraine to 90th the process of economic development went to nowadays? An answer will be «yes». At first, even not analyzing separate indexes, it is possible firmly to talk about the enormous evolution of production relations in a country for this period. Secondly, in spite of worsening of most indexes of dynamics of economic development, some became better of them. From the indexes of macroeconomic efficiency is resource-demanding, from the indexes of the economy growing is the production of some consumer goods of the protracted use, from the indexes of level and quality of life is foremost the sharp diminishing of scarcity of consumer goods.Thirdly, it is necessary to take into account that transition of economy of country from administrative to the market economic system, appropriately must was result at first in the sharp worsening of many indexes of economic development, but, simultaneously, he pawned pre-conditions for their improvement in the near future.

From the beginning of April, 2011 a price of producers index in the economy of Ukraine attained a large value threateningly – more than 20%. In this period the National bank of Ukraine (NBU) began to carry out an anti crisis policy. Growth of money aggregate of M3 rates began in Ukraine to grow short. With beam-on in three months began to go down price of producers index, which by the end of 2013 made little less than 12%. It rendered decision influence on inflationary processes on the whole. An economy completed a year with the comparatively small value of inflation, not exceeding on the average for a year 8%. A cost-of-living-index (December to December of previous year) made about 5%. NBU explained it high suggestion of s/kh products, i.e. by the high harvest of  year of 2013. However together with reduction of inflation business activity grew in Ukraine shortly.The last is investigation of not only s/kh. factor but also monetary, as reduction of business activity in an economy was on the whole, rather than just in one, marked sector[7,p.34].

In the case of  thecontinuation of collaboration from IMF and strengthening of partnership with China in the field of bringing in of credit resources transference of negative economic trends is possible on future periods, in connection with the increase of national debt to the level a more than 70% GDP. In connection with the last elections, necessity of observance of procedure of new composition of KMU,and also by absence in good time introduced in a committee TELL on questions of budget and fiscal policy, state budget of Ukraine statement, risks to begin 2016 year without a budget are increased, that negatively will affect state sector of economy. Acceptance of moratorium on the sale of earth and absence of large industrial objects for privatization increase the problems of filling of profitable part of the state budget.

At the same time necessary realization of adjusting of flowing processes. The state, as supervisory organ, is needed for the lead through of stabilizing policy — complex of measures of macroeconomic policy, directed on stabilizing of economy at the level of full employment, or potential issue.. Recipes of state interference with an economy in the conditions of macroeconomic instability much enough. However taken general principles of affecting level of business activity are to the followings positions: in the conditions of slumps a government must pursue a stimulant policy, and in the conditions of getting up — retentive macroeconomic policy, aiming to shut out the strong «overheat» of economy (inflationary break).In other words, the state must smooth out amplitude of vibrations of actual GDP round the line of trend.

For an exit it is important from deflation depression: it is stimulation of domestic production, in t.ch through limitation of import by the changes in import;

- stimulation of fund market development, financial market on the whole; 

- realization of active investment-innovative policy of development of domestic production base is reformations of structure of economy;  - on its basis to stimulate development of money and financial markets, passing to the floating rate of exchange;

- to clear the «bad assets» of financial corporations; it is a leadthrough of active policy on lowering of interest rates and lowering of rate of exchange; it is a decline of the general tax loading on a commodity producer; it is creation of instruments of the social protecting from the temporal negative of the conducted changes.




List of the used sources:

1.Internet source.http://news.finance.ua/ru/news/-/292291/ukrainskaya-ekonomika-vstupaet-v-fazu-deflyatsionnoj-depressii-v-2012-2013-iee

2.Смирнов С.В. Циклические колебания в рыночной экономике // Экономический журнал ВШЭ. 2013. Т. 14. # 2, c.13-15

3.Aruoba S., Diebold F., Kose M., Terrones M. Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring: IMF Working Paper.WP/11/25. 2013,p.23-26

4.Levanon G., Manini J-C., Ozyildirim A., TanchuaJ.Using a Composite Index of Financial Conditions Indicators to Predict Turning Points in the U.S. Business Cycle /CIRET/KOF/HSE Workshop, Moscow, September 2014. (https://www.ciret.org/files/Ozyildirim_Ataman.pdf),p.32-36?

5.Mitchell W. Business Cycles. Berkley: University of California Press, 1913. 

Reprint of part III, Business Cycles and Their Causes. Philadelphia, Pa.: Porcupine Press, 2012,p.61-64

6. Electronic magazine of Forbes [Electronic resource].– internet access :http://forbes.ua/news/1343735-moodys-snizilo-rejtingi -11-ukrainskih-bankov

7.Smirnov S.V. the Cyclic vibrations in the market economy of // the Economic magazine of VSHE. 2014. T. 14. No 2.,p.34




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