ANALISYS OF ROLE OF TYNDPs SCENARIOS AS A FORECAST BASE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TRENDS - Scientific conference
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ANALISYS OF ROLE OF TYNDPs SCENARIOS AS A FORECAST BASE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TRENDS

23.06.2020 18:31

[Section 1. Economy, organization and administration of enterprises, branches and complexes]

Author: Ozarowski Oleh, PhD student, Kraków University of Economics, Poland


ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, represents 42 electricity transmission system operators (TSOs) from 35 countries across Europe. ENTSO-E was established and given legal mandates by the EU’s Third Legislative Package for the Internal Energy Market in 2009, which aims at further liberalising the gas and electricity markets in the EU.

The role of Transmission System Operators has considerably evolved with the Third Energy Package. Due to unbundling and the liberalisation of the energy market TSOs have become the meeting place for the various players to interact on the market place [1].

Regulation (EU) 347/2013 requires that the ENTSOs use scenarios for their respective Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs). On 12 November, the ENTSOs published their draft joint Scenario Report for TYNDP 2020 – the press release, which includes links to the associated documents, is available on the ENTSOG website, here.

Here we analyze the mentioned scenario plans. The TYNDT scenarios contains four possible visions based on different assumptions for energy policy and renewable energy targets. The four scenarios have been divided into 2 scenarios (axes). One axis represents the development path to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the EU by 80-95% compared to 1990. For the second axis, a comparison is made between strong and loose EU policies to reduce the above-mentioned gases. The current instruments of renewable energy policy and the expected changes in their development serve as a reference for the predictions of these visions. These scenarios of RE development in the European countries were presented with special attention to the cost and benefit methodology [2]. 

The difference in the results of the scenarios on RE deployment (for example, data on the gross generation in wind and solar power) depend heavily on the main features of the studies, such as assumptions, economic scope or modelling [3]. Many empirical studies in field of renewable energy economics very often use TYNDTs scenarios to conduct own analysis. 

Literature:

1. ENTSO-E. Online im Internet unter URL: https://entsoe.eu/about/inside-entsoe/objectives/ (Stand 11.01.2020).

2. ENTSOE: TYNDP 2016 Scenario Development Report. Online im Internet unter URL: https://docstore.entsoe.eu/Documents/TYNDP%20documents/TYNDP%202016/150521_TYNDP2016_Scenario_Development_Report_for_consultationv2.pdf (Stand 11.01.2020).

3. Paltsev, S. (2016). Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 6(4), e242



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